AssayIndex
Quality system

Uncertainty budget for a purity figure

Nobody publishes one. Here is what it would contain, and what the combined standard uncertainty on a peptide purity result actually looks like.

method reference3 sections3 pharmacopoeial references

Every purity figure in this index is printed to two decimal places and none of them is accurate to two decimal places. A number without an uncertainty is an assertion; the purpose of this page is to make the size of the uncertainty explicit, because it determines which comparisons on this site are meaningful and which are noise.

Contributions

SourceTypical u (pp)Notes
Integration — baseline placement0.08Larger on a drifting baseline; the dominant term on well-resolved peaks
Integration — valley/drop-line choice on an unresolved shoulder0.05–0.45The largest single term when a shoulder is present
Injection repeatability0.04Modern autosamplers; worse on manual injection
Detector response non-linearity at high concentration0.06Reduced by injecting on-scale
Relative response factor of impurities ≠ 10.10–0.30Almost never measured; assumed unity. Aromatic impurities respond differently at 214 nm
Peaks below the reporting threshold0.05Systematic and one-directional: purity is overstated
Sample-preparation concentration error0.03Small, because purity is a ratio
Column ageing over the sequence0.05Detected by bracketing system-suitability injections
Within-lot vial-to-vial variation0.28 (median)Not a method term, but it limits what a single-vial result says about a lot

Combination

Combined standard uncertainty (well-resolved main peak, no shoulder):

  u_c = √(0.08² + 0.04² + 0.06² + 0.20² + 0.05² + 0.03² + 0.05²)
      = √(0.0064 + 0.0016 + 0.0036 + 0.0400 + 0.0025 + 0.0009 + 0.0025)
      = √0.0575
      = 0.24 pp

Expanded uncertainty, k = 2 (≈95 % confidence):

  U = 2 × 0.24 = 0.48 pp

Same calculation with an unresolved shoulder (u = 0.45 pp for the
integration-boundary term):

  u_c = √(0.0575 + 0.2025 − 0.0064) = √0.2536 = 0.50 pp
  U   = 1.01 pp

Consequences for this site

  • A purity difference of 0.3 pp between two records is inside the expanded uncertainty of either one. The index does not treat such differences as findings and neither should a reader.
  • The empirically measured inter-lab limits of agreement — ±0.44 pp for the best-agreeing pair, ±0.52 pp for the widest among the high-volume labs — sit close to the calculated expanded uncertainty. That is reassuring: the model and the observation agree.
  • Rule AX-R05's threshold of 1.5 pp for COA divergence was set from this analysis. It is roughly three times the expanded uncertainty of a single well-behaved measurement, which is why the index is willing to call it a finding.
  • The relative-response-factor term is the largest and the least addressed. Assuming every impurity responds identically to the parent at 214 nm is convenient and wrong, and correcting it would require an authentic standard of each impurity.

Normative references

Cited because they are the documents the acceptance criteria above are taken from. The index applies them as written and states every deviation.

  • ISO/IEC Guide 98-3 (GUM) — Uncertainty of measurement
  • Eurachem/CITAC CG 4 — Quantifying uncertainty in analytical measurement
  • ICH Q2(R2) — Validation of analytical procedures

Related methods

Peak integration practice

Drop-line versus valley-to-valley, tangent skim, baseline placement, and the reporting threshold — where a purity figure is actually decided.

Chromatographic purity

Method validation to ICH Q2(R2)

The eight validation characteristics, what each one demonstrates, and which of them the reports in this index actually document.

Quality system

System suitability

The injections that establish a chromatographic system was fit to produce the result, and the parameters the index checks before accepting a purity figure.

Quality system